// Page 06 · Sources & Citations
Every number in this report has a source. A full bibliography of the primary data, academic research, institutional reports, and journalism used across all pages — with links where available.
Temperature anomaly data uses Berkeley Earth's gridded land surface temperature dataset, providing station-based records back to the 1850s. For World Cup host cities, we use the nearest weather station with continuous records from at least 1950. Match-day average temperatures are derived from June/July daily averages, except for Qatar 2022 (November/December) and South Africa 2010 (Southern Hemisphere winter).
CO₂ emission figures are national totals from the Global Carbon Project's annual budget release. "Change vs. bid baseline" compares the year of formal FIFA host announcement to the tournament year — measuring the hosting cycle's impact on a nation's emissions trajectory, not emissions solely attributable to the tournament.
Where independent researchers have disputed FIFA's official sustainability claims (notably Qatar 2022), we cite both figures and clearly note the discrepancy.
This project investigates whether the traditional FIFA World Cup hosting model is structurally incompatible with meeting the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming target — and what changes would be necessary to make large-scale football events climate-compatible.
H₀ — "Climate change is increasingly constraining the viability of the traditional World Cup hosting model, with projected emissions for 2026 (est. 9+ MtCO₂e) representing approximately 92% above the 2010–2022 tournament average, driven primarily by long-haul air travel in an expanded 48-team, three-nation format."
Climate risk analysis follows the IPCC AR6 conceptual framework:
Hazard — heat (WBGT metric), extreme weather, and long-term temperature anomalies in host cities.
Exposure — degree to which tournaments, fans, athletes, and infrastructure sit in climate-hazard zones.
Vulnerability — host nations' susceptibility assessed using HDI rankings, infrastructure resilience, and public health capacity.
Carbon footprint analysis uses Life-Cycle Assessment covering Scope 1 (direct venue emissions), Scope 2 (purchased electricity), and Scope 3 (fan travel, supply chain).
This is a research synthesis and educational resource, not a peer-reviewed study. We welcome corrections — the goal is accuracy, not advocacy.